AfD widens lead over CDU/CSU in ARD poll

New polling shows the right‑wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) extending its lead over the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). If a federal election were held next week, 28 percent of respondents said they would vote for AfD — a one‑point increase and a new high in the ARD‑DeutschlandTrend series.

The survey, conducted by Infratest dimap for the ARD between August 3 and 5, polled roughly 1,300 representative German adults and records a small decline for the CDU/CSU compared with an early July reading, while other parties remain unchanged.

AfD also appears dominant in state polling for two upcoming September contests. In both Saxony‑Anhalt and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern the party leads ahead of the regional votes, a factor that keeps pressure on the national parties.

Public opinion on cooperation and change

Although all mainstream democratic parties formally reject cooperating with AfD, public attitudes are less uniform. According to the poll, 37 percent of Germans oppose any cooperation with the right‑wing populists, 32 percent favor case‑by‑case decisions, and 27 percent generally support working with AfD — the latter group largely made up of AfD backers. Recently, about 1,000 German lawyers signed an open letter calling for AfD to be banned.

Regional differences are pronounced: the former East remains an AfD stronghold. There, 38 percent say the party — described by many observers as partly right‑wing extremist — should be treated like any other political formation. The survey also finds a deep appetite for change: for the first time in the DeutschlandTrend more than half of respondents say they want fundamental political change in Germany, while only four in ten prefer limited course corrections.

Trust in the political system is weak. Some 43 percent of all respondents say they constantly feel neglected; that sentiment rises to 70 percent among AfD supporters. Berlin has recently been marked by heated debates about proposed reforms and what pollsters call a fairly chaotic cabinet reshuffle: the former head of the Chancellery, Torsten Frey, moved to lead the conservative parliamentary group in the Bundestag, and Health Minister Nina Warken took his place.

The poll also reflects the impact of a recent terrorist attack: on July 25 a young Islamist in a rented car drove into crowds during Christopher Street Day celebrations in Berlin, killing one woman and seriously injuring 31 people; the attacker was shot dead by police the following day. One third of respondents say they are personally worried they could become victims of a terrorist attack, and 70 percent view Islamist terrorism as the greatest danger — a reversal from the end of the previous decade, when far‑right terrorism was seen as the principal threat.

Photo: press material from the event