U.S. intelligence says Russia may test NATO with a limited attack

U.S. intelligence officials warn that President Vladimir Putin may try in the coming years to test NATO's resolve with a limited attack on a member state. Published: August 7, 2026, 11:00.

The assessment says Moscow is more likely to employ measured forms of aggression — including cyber attacks, sabotage or a small-scale ground incursion — rather than a full-scale invasion. The analysis frames these options as ways to probe NATO's willingness to respond under Article 5.

Shortages of critical munitions increase vulnerability

American analysts link the increased risk to shortages in critical munitions within U.S. stockpiles. Officials say the United States has significantly reduced those inventories after transferring large quantities of weapons to Ukraine following the Russian invasion, and because of recent confrontations involving Iran.

The report identifies specific categories of armaments exposed to risk: long-range precision missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems and short-range surface-to-air missiles such as the Stinger.

European military officials have voiced similar concerns. In June, the head of the German army, Lieutenant General Kristijan Frojding, warned that Russia could be in a position to attack NATO members within the next three years and that a major hybrid assault or even a limited ground incursion could occur between this autumn and 2029.

Intelligence also flags the possibility of operations carried out under a "false-flag" tactic: drones manufactured in Ukraine used to strike critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, likely directed at NATO's eastern flank to test collective-defence commitments under Article 5.

Photo: press material from the event