UK Met Office warns 2027 likely to become the hottest year on record
A strong El Niño in the Pacific, amplified by human-caused warming, could push global temperatures to record highs and raise the risk of extreme weather.
The United Kingdom's national weather service has warned that an El Niño developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be unusually strong and could make 2027 the hottest year on record when combined with human-driven climate warming.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that typically appears every two to seven years and lasts about a year, but current measurements show sea-surface temperatures in the key Pacific region already more than 2°C above the long-term average — well above the 0.5°C threshold scientists use to declare an El Niño.
Forecasts point to unusually large warming in the tropical Pacific
“We must be clear: this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen such a strong El Niño signal in our forecasts,” said Professor Adam Skeif, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office.
Forecasters at the Met Office say the Pacific warming could exceed 3°C as El Niño reaches its peak; some other climate groups estimate even larger anomalies, perhaps as much as 4°C above the multi-year average.
“If that happens, it is not impossible to have the strongest El Niño in the last 500, even 1,000 years,” said Nick Hausfader, a climatologist at the US research organisation Berkeley Earth. Dr Nik Danston, a Met Office climatologist, warned that the development raises the probability of very high global average temperatures: “It is very likely that 2027 will replace 2024 as the hottest year on record.”
Earlier this month the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that El Niño could put tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries at risk by damaging harvests and disrupting food supplies.
Photo: press material from the event
