Late swing puts Lamine Yamal as Ballon d'Or favourite before 26 October

Unexpectedly, the race for the Ballon d'Or has taken a dramatic turn and now Lamine Yamal is the bookies' favourite ahead of the vote that will be decided on 26 October. The shift in odds happened in the final hours before voting closed and has reshuffled the perceived front-runners.

Late swing in betting markets

Just one week earlier the betting market quoted Harry Kane at 1.65 to win and 3.75 for Yamal. A few days later those numbers moved to 1.62 for Kane versus 3.25 for Yamal, keeping Kane clearly in front. However, by the time voting closed at midnight on Monday the picture had changed: bookies initially gave Kane 56 percent chance and Yamal 28 percent, and then only hours later the Barcelona forward led with 45 percent while Kane fell to 42 percent.

The abrupt reversal has no single confirmed explanation. One theory is that a major investor placed large bets on Yamal to profit from the market movement. Another possibility is that unofficial information about the winner leaked and some bettors reacted to it. A third contributory factor may have been Spain's Nations League match against England: Spain won, both players scored, and Kane missed a penalty that would have put England 3–1 up, events that appear to have strengthened Yamal's position in the predictions.

Alongside the betting shifts, a large online poll recorded Yamal as the favourite with nearly 350,000 votes; Harry Kane fell to fourth place in that survey. Following Yamal in the poll were Kylian Mbappé — described in the poll as the top scorer in the Champions League and the World Cup — and Fabián Ruiz, who is listed as having won the Champions League and the World Cup.

Whether the bookmakers’ late-night assessments and the poll results will be mirrored at the Ballon d'Or ceremony will be revealed when the award is handed out on 26 October.

Photo: press material from the event