ECMWF seasonal outlook: warmer, wetter autumn 2026 and higher flood risk
ECMWF model and meteorologist Slavcho Poposki warn of temperatures above average and increased chance of local floods in the Balkans this autumn.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal outlook points to a notably warmer and wetter autumn for much of Europe in 2026, with temperature anomalies of up to 2–3°C above multi‑year averages and precipitation totals above normal, meteorologist Slavcho Poposki said on 18 October 2026.
According to the ECMWF model, large parts of the continent are likely to see temperatures several degrees above the long‑term mean. Poposki warned that the Balkans, including North Macedonia, are expected to record autumn temperatures roughly 2°C higher than the multi‑year average for the season.
He also said precipitation is forecast to be above average across much of Europe and the Balkans, increasing the chance of severe weather events and localized flooding in the autumn months. That combination — warmer air holding more moisture — raises the risk of intense rainfall episodes in vulnerable areas.
El Niño and forecast uncertainty
Poposki attributed the unusual seasonal pattern to the strong influence of the El Niño climatic warming phenomenon. He said the effect of El Niño on European weather will remain significant through the autumn months, helping to push temperatures upward and to modify precipitation patterns.
Translating his longer statement into practical advice, Poposki stressed that seasonal outlooks can change and urged citizens to follow shorter‑range meteorological analyses for actionable information. He said those short‑term forecasts have a high probability of verification — "over 90%" — but reminded readers that deviations are possible and to stay informed.
Photo: press material from the event
