Top VEB economist dismissed after warnings about Russia's economy and the war in Ukraine

Andrej Klepach, the chief economist at Russia's state development bank VEB, has been dismissed, authorities confirmed on 18 August 2026. The removal follows publication this month of a May speech in which Klepach sharply criticized the condition of the Russian economy and warned against overconfidence about Kyiv's collapse.

In his address to colleagues in May, Klepach said that Russian economic performance lags behind that of China and the United States and, in some respects, even behind Ukraine. He warned that mounting economic pressure on Russia would inevitably produce social strains that could erupt unexpectedly.

In the controversial passage that drew attention, Klepach told his audience: "We will not win this competition in the war of attrition with Ukraine. We have an illusion that everything will fall apart there. It hasn't collapsed and it will not collapse. Our costs are increasing."

Officials, bank response and reported political intervention

VEB has offered no official reason for Klepach's dismissal. Independent Russian media reported, citing sources, that the decision to remove him was ordered by the Kremlin. Former central bank adviser Alexandra Prokopenko described Klepach as a respected expert whose forecasts are grounded in reality rather than flattery of the authorities.

"The dismissal of Klepach, and he is one of the best Russian macroeconomists, will probably not postpone the imminent crisis he warned about," Prokopenko said. Klepach had held a senior role at the state development bank since 2014, and his comments represent a rare public break with the official narrative that Moscow is successfully enduring sanctions and that Ukraine will eventually collapse.

Analysts say the removal highlights tensions within Russia between technocratic economic assessments and political messaging about the war and sanctions. Klepach's firing removes one of the more prominent internal voices urging sober appraisal of long-term costs and risks.

Photo: press material from the event