Greece’s stronger surplus could trim debt to 137% of GDP and hand ‘most indebted’ label to Italy
Higher-than-expected primary surplus opens the door to larger early debt repayments and would lower Greece’s 2026 debt ratio to 137% of GDP.
Greece's stronger-than-expected budget performance has created room for an accelerated reduction of its large public debt, government figures show.
According to the budget execution report, the primary surplus — which excludes debt servicing — reached €5.72 billion in the first seven months of the year, well above the initially projected €4.41 billion.
Because of these results, officials at Greece's Ministry of Finance are examining the possibility of making an early repayment of almost €13 billion of the debt by the end of the year, instead of the originally planned €9 billion.
Smaller headline debt ratio, symbolic shift in EU ranking
At the current pace, Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2026 is projected to fall to 137 percent of gross domestic product, compared with the previously estimated 138.2 percent.
While the difference is numerically small, it would be enough for Greece to lose the label of the most indebted EU member state and for Italy to assume that position.
Officials and market participants will watch the coming months for confirmation of sustained surpluses and any formal decisions on the extra early repayments, which will determine whether the revised debt path holds through the end of 2026.
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