IEA warns Europe could face gas shortage if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
IEA says a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz through early 2027 could push European gas stocks down to just 10% and keep prices high.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that Europe could face a gas shortage if President Donald Trump and Iran fail to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The agency says that if the strait remains closed into early 2027, European gas inventories could fall to just 10 percent of storage capacity, leaving the continent vulnerable to a particularly cold winter.
IEA outlines timing and risks
According to the IEA, the problem would not end with winter: next summer Europe would need to refill its nearly depleted storage sites, extending a period of elevated prices that have already been driven up by the conflict with Iran. The agency noted that European spot gas prices in the third quarter of this year were 90 percent higher than the same period a year earlier.
The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked since March, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global gas supply, the IEA said. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, cannot easily redirect its shipments to alternative routes in the way some oil exporters — notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — have partly done with crude supplies.
The IEA’s warning arrives as President Trump weighs his next steps against Iran following today’s congressional elections. Trump has promised to unblock the strait, but it remains unclear whether he will pursue diplomacy or authorize new military strikes.
European governments and energy companies face a difficult set of choices: secure alternative imports where possible, accelerate demand-reduction measures, and prepare for a costly refill of storage next year should the strait stay closed. The IEA’s analysis underscores how a single chokepoint can reverberate through global gas markets and national energy security plans.
Photo: press material from the event
