Canada reviews scenarios as PM Mark Carney says US invasion unlikely

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the likelihood of a US invasion is small, but that Ottawa must examine all possible scenarios as bilateral ties evolve.

Military experts call a direct attack nearly inconceivable

Defense analysts contacted by media emphasize that an outright military assault by the United States against Canada would be extremely difficult to execute. Retired major-general Christopher Coates, who spent 34 years in senior command positions with the Royal Canadian Air Force, said that at no point in his career was an American attack on Canada considered.

For decades the two countries have been close military partners and NATO allies, with their armed forces cooperating closely across a range of missions. Canada and the United States jointly monitor and defend North American air and space security through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and maintain regular intelligence sharing.

Analysts say that deep operational integration and long-standing defence ties make any armed conflict between the neighbours exceptionally complex and costly for both sides, even as political relations show signs of change.

Ottawa’s review of contingency planning reflects that complexity: officials say it is prudent to consider unlikely scenarios so that military and civilian agencies can respond quickly if circumstances shift.

Photo: press material from the event