Analysis: climate change made Spanish and French wildfires far more likely
WWA finds climate warming made the weather behind Spanish blazes up to 20 times more likely and doubled the risk in France.
Scientists say the extreme heat and drought that fueled catastrophic wildfires in Spain and France were made far more likely by human-caused warming, according to a new analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium.
WWA’s calculations show that the hot, dry and windy conditions observed in Spain were at least 20 times more likely because of the climate crisis, while the same conditions in France were about twice as likely. The researchers say the findings add to evidence linking emissions from burning oil, gas and coal to destructive summer weather across Europe.
How the conditions aligned
Earlier work by the consortium concluded that the intense heatwave at the end of June, which claimed around 20,000 lives, would not have occurred without the extra atmospheric warming. The resulting drought has also dried soils across the continent, increasing vulnerability to ignition.
High temperatures and parched ground drove a sharp rise in the daily severity index, a measure of how quickly and intensely a fire can spread. A wet winter and spring had spurred rapid vegetation growth that later dried out and became abundant fuel. The scientists analysed a seven-day high-risk period in both countries, comparing current weather with conditions before industrial-era warming when global temperature was 1.4 degrees Celsius lower.
Smoke from the fires released large amounts of toxic pollution. The French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks reported particle pollution rising up to 20 times legal limits and said extremely poor air was felt as far as 400 kilometres from the blazes. Globally, estimates attribute roughly 1.5 million premature deaths a year to smoke from wildfires.
Since early July, large fires in Spain and France have caused fatalities, destroyed thousands of homes and forced more than 300,000 people to evacuate. Major fires have also been recorded in the United Kingdom and Greece, where three firefighters were killed. Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, warned that these European disasters show how rapidly extreme heat and dry areas can turn fires into national emergencies and urged a faster transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy and better protection for populations facing escalating climate impacts.
Photo: press material from the event
