Le Pen doubles Mélenchon’s support in new poll ahead of France vote

A new opinion poll published on November 9, 2026 shows Marine Le Pen far ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon as France heads toward next year’s presidential election, underscoring growing political polarization in the country.

The survey, run last week by Toluna Harris Interactive, tested five electoral matchups and found that Le Pen would win the first round in each scenario, taking between 34 and 36 percent of the vote.

By contrast, Jean-Luc Mélenchon — leader of La France Insoumise — was projected to attract just 18 or 19 percent in those same scenarios, although the poll indicates he would still advance to the second round in every case.

Implications for the runoff

Despite Mélenchon’s consistent second-round presence in the scenarios, the data point to a substantial gap that makes his victory unlikely should he face Le Pen in the runoff; the survey treats the National Rally candidate as the probable winner in head-to-head matchups.

Analysts say the end of Emmanuel Macron’s second and final five-year term, weak centrist parties and a struggling national economy have widened space for extremes on both the right and the left.

Both Le Pen and Mélenchon have been recurring figures in recent presidential contests: they stood as candidates in 2012, 2017 and 2022. Mélenchon has never reached the second round, while Le Pen advanced to the runoff in 2017 and 2022 and was defeated by Emmanuel Macron on those occasions.

Photo: press material from the event