Likud largest single party, Yashar bloc narrowly leads — Arab parties record gains in exit polls

Early exit polls after Israel's parliamentary vote show a narrow advantage for the opposition bloc led by former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot, even though the ruling Likud remains the single largest party in the Knesset.

The same projections indicate that the coalition around Yashar, the party associated with Eisenkot, would hold more seats in total than Likud. At the same time, Arab parties achieved a record high number of Knesset mandates, a development that could complicate post‑election calculations for both Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Turnout and thresholds reshape the post‑vote picture

Officials noted unusually high turnout nationwide; polling day also recorded a particularly strong surge in participation within Arab communities. Analysts immediately warned that the Arab lists’ gains may squeeze smaller Jewish parties and increase the chance that some fail to pass the 3.25 percent electoral threshold.

All previous Israeli governments have been formed by multi‑party coalitions, and a larger Arab presence in the Knesset could make their backing decisive in coalition talks. However, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot publicly ruled out cooperating with the Arab parties during the campaign, which could leave coalition building more complicated.

Under Israel’s system, the president does not automatically give the mandate to the bloc with the most seats; instead the president consults with all parties and assigns the mandate to the party leader he believes has the best chance to form a government. The exit polls set the stage for those consultations and for intensive post‑vote negotiations.

Photo: press material from the event