Inflation slowing but external risks remain unfavourable, says National Bank
The central bank projects average inflation of 4% this year, easing to 3% by 2027, but says a renewed Middle East escalation would be the biggest near‑term risk.
The National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia says inflation is slowing but warns that external risks remain unfavorable for the outlook.
“Such a development could trigger renewed upward pressure and increased volatility in energy and other primary commodity prices, disruptions in supply chains, a deepening of inflationary pressures and a slowdown in global economic growth,” the National Bank said.
Outlook and numbers
The bank expects the average inflation rate this year to be 4%, after which it anticipates a gradual slowdown to a level of 3% in 2027. That trajectory reflects an assessment that domestic inflationary momentum is easing but remains sensitive to external shocks.
Officials highlighted the Middle East as the most important short-term source of uncertainty: a renewed escalation of the conflict there could reverberate through global markets, pushing energy costs up and increasing price volatility for key commodities.
The National Bank noted that such disruptions could also affect supply chains, amplifying inflationary pressures and weighing on world economic growth—factors that would complicate the path back to stable prices at home.
Policymakers will monitor developments closely and adjust their outlooks and instruments as needed, the statement said, while reiterating the need for vigilance given the asymmetric nature of the external risks.
Photo: press material from the event
