Alcaraz’s US Open fate may hinge on one decision as wrist recovery lingers

Carlos Alcaraz's rehabilitation from a serious right-wrist injury has taken far longer than expected, leaving the world No. 3 without an official match for months and casting doubt over his participation in the final Grand Slam of the season.

The Spaniard already missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon and has confirmed he will not play the Masters in Montreal. Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic also withdrew from the Canadian event, but while they cited load management, Alcaraz remains sidelined because of an injury to his wrist.

Former British player and coach Greg Rusedski believes the decisive sign will come in Cincinnati: "If Carlos Alcaraz does not appear in Cincinnati, he will not play at the US Open either. That would mean an even longer break," Rusedski warned.

Why Cincinnati matters

Rusedski said he watched recent training footage of Alcaraz but found it unconvincing as proof the Spaniard is ready for competitive matches. "We must not forget that New York is played over three sets. Based on the footage I saw recently, I'm not sure he will be ready for Cincinnati," he added.

A direct return at a Grand Slam would be a significant gamble: best-of-five matches demand far greater physical strain than regular events, especially after several months out. Rusedski urged caution, warning that a premature comeback could trigger a relapse and an even longer absence. "Tennis needs Alcaraz, but I'm not optimistic. He may recover by the end of the season, but he should not rush," the former US Open finalist concluded.

The injury first appeared during a tournament in Barcelona, when Alcaraz felt pain in his right wrist. What initially seemed minor proved to be more serious: he was diagnosed with tenosynovitis, inflammation of the sheath surrounding a tendon, a condition that can cause pain, swelling and difficulty with repetitive wrist movements.

Alcaraz withdrew from the Madrid Masters in April and did not defend his Roland Garros title. He then missed the entire grass-court season. His team has not given a firm return date; their stated priority is full recovery and avoiding a chronic problem. If he does play Cincinnati, it would serve as the ideal competitive test for the wrist; skipping Cincinnati would make his appearance in New York unlikely.

The long layoff has already affected his ATP standing: Alcaraz has dropped to third place behind Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev. Although he won the Australian Open this season, the injury has deprived him of almost the entire clay and grass campaigns. His desire to return is clear, but ultimately his body will decide whether to prioritise long-term health over salvaging this season.

Photo: press material from the event