Arctic polar blast may push temperatures below −10°C in North Macedonia in late October, Slavcho Poposki says
ECMWF model runs indicate an Arctic air push in the third decade of October that could produce sub‑zero temperatures and isolated snow, meteorologist Slavcho Poposki warns.
Published: 14 October 2026, 06:30
Latest updates of the ECMWF model point to a penetration of an Arctic polar air mass across the Balkans and North Macedonia during the third decade of October, a development that could bring very low air temperatures — even below −10 °C — meteorologist Slavcho Poposki said.
ECMWF model shows Arctic air intrusion
According to the meteorological analysis based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the circulation pattern would favor a strong advection of cold Arctic air over much of the peninsula in the last ten days of October.
“What concerns precipitation, weaker local snow showers are outlined across the Balkan Peninsula during the above-mentioned period.
I should note that this is a very unofficial meteorological analysis and that with new updates of this meteorological model there will of course be further changes around this scenario, but what kind of changes they will be you will find out in my next weather posts. With this I want to say that this announcement should by no means be taken as final and definitive, but is only a very unofficial meteorological notice,” he said.
Poposki stressed the provisional nature of the forecast and warned that model runs can change; he said he will publish follow-up updates as the ECMWF issues new runs. For now, authorities and citizens are advised to monitor official warnings if conditions evolve toward severe cold or early snow.
Photo: press material from the event
