Forecasters expect a warmer, wetter autumn 2026 with elevated flood risk
ECMWF seasonal model forecasts autumn 2026 will be 2–3°C warmer across much of Europe and wetter than average, raising flood risk in some areas.
Seasonal outlooks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) point to an autumn 2026 that will be notably warmer than the multi-year average across much of Europe, with temperatures 2–3°C above normal and precipitation likely to be above average — a combination that raises the risk of severe weather and flooding in some areas, meteorologist Slavcho Popovski said.
ECMWF model shows warmer, wetter conditions
The ECMWF seasonal model indicates that large parts of the continent will experience autumn temperatures substantially higher than usual, by as much as 2–3 degrees Celsius compared with the multi-year mean. At the same time, precipitation is expected to be significantly above average over wide areas of Europe.
Popovski warned that higher-than-normal rainfall across much of Europe increases the likelihood of major weather incidents and flood events during the autumn months.
For the Balkans — including North Macedonia — the outlook is for a warmer autumn as well, with temperatures roughly 2°C above the long-term average for the season. Precipitation in the Balkan region is also forecast to be above the seasonal mean, meaning our part of Europe may see more frequent or heavier rain events.
Forecasters link this pattern to a strong influence from the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is expected to continue affecting weather over the European continent into the autumn months, Popovski said.
He also noted that these are seasonal outlooks for autumn 2026 and that changes and deviations from the current forecast remain possible; authorities and the public should follow updated forecasts as the season approaches.
Photo: press material from the event
