Fewer first graders, about 20 branch schools to close

North Macedonia is preparing for a sharp drop in incoming pupils this autumn, and the education authorities say the squeeze will force the closure of about 20 small branch schools. Preliminary ministry figures point to roughly 4,900 fewer children starting first grade than a year ago, a decline officials say will reshape class sizes and school networks.

Vesna Janevska, Minister of Education and Science, told broadcasters that part of the shortfall reflects births recorded in 2020, when fertility already began to fall, and that some children are still being registered at the end of August and in September.

"Some of the pupils who were supposed to be enrolled in May and June still have not been registered. That is a practice from previous years. Additionally, not all schools enter the data into the e-diary on time," Janevska said, while warning that even with late registrations the ministry expects a substantially smaller cohort.

Numbers and expert warnings

On 6 August the minister released the ministry’s latest estimate: "According to the latest data, this year there are about 4,900 fewer first graders than last year. Even if the number of enrolled children increases in the coming period, we will have at least 3,000 fewer first graders. We expect this trend next year as well."

Demographer Doncho Gerasimovski disputes the idea that falling births alone explain the sudden drop. "The reduction in the number of live births affects the number of pupils, but not to the extent that would explain a decline of nearly 5,000 first graders in a single year. That shows that emigration has a significant influence on these figures," he said, adding: "This is not just statistics. When you lose first graders, you lose future pupils, future university students and future workforce."

The practical consequence is already visible: the Ministry of Education and Science has announced plans to close around 20 branch (podrani) schools this year, mostly institutions with fewer than five pupils. Janevska noted that in 2021 and 2022 roughly 20 schools were closed for the same reason.

Longer-term data back the alarm. First-grade enrolment has fallen almost every year: more than 22,100 first graders were recorded in 2018/2019, while in 2025/2026 the number dropped to 17,921. Analyses by civic researchers estimate that the total number of pupils in primary and secondary education has fallen by about 27,000 over the past decade. Meanwhile, live births fell from 19,031 in 2020 to 16,061 in 2024 — a decline experts say does not fully account for the enrolment loss.

Policymakers face a difficult choice: consolidate resources and close tiny schools to preserve educational quality, or keep small local classrooms open to sustain rural communities. The ministry says the priority is that pupils have opportunities to learn and socialise in adequately sized groups; demographers warn that the demographic trend threatens the country’s future labour force.

Photo: press material from the event