Sweden election: tight race could deliver historic government role to Swedish Democrats

Sweden's voters are going to the polls today in one of the country's closest parliamentary contests in years, with the left and right blocks separated by roughly 0.3 percentage points and the outcome possibly delivering the first-ever formal role in government to the Swedish Democrats.

Key numbers and turnout

A record 8,046,725 people are eligible to vote — the first time the electorate has exceeded eight million — and turnout is expected to remain very high, around the 84.2 percent seen at the last election. Early returns are due tonight, but forming a new government could take weeks or months.

The left block is led by Magdalena Andersson, who is campaigning to return to the prime ministership after four years in opposition. Her principal rival is the incumbent prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, leader of the Moderates, who heads the current right‑leaning minority government.

The sitting administration is a coalition of the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals that does not formally include the Swedish Democrats (SD) but depends on their backing through the so‑called Tidö Agreement. That coalition currently holds 176 of the Riksdag's 349 seats — a slim majority of a single mandate.

Kristersson has this campaign offered ministerial posts to the Swedish Democrats if the right wins. Polls put SD at about 19 percent of the vote, and its leader Jimmie Åkesson is openly seeking direct participation in government. The party, which has neo‑Nazi roots, issued an apology in 2025 for its past neo‑Nazi and antisemitic positions, but continues to advocate radical measures such as ending permanent residence permits, further cutting migration and legal rules targeting so‑called "anti‑Swedish" behaviour.

Core campaign themes are immigration, crime and the question "what is Sweden". Both Andersson and the Social Democrats have shifted rightward on some of these issues in recent years, so many voters are choosing more on tempo and style of reform than on entirely opposite visions. A crucial technical factor is the national 4 percent electoral threshold (or 12 percent in a single constituency). The Liberals — a partner of Kristersson — poll around the threshold (between 2 and 4.3 percent); if they fail to reach it the right block could lose valuable seats, potentially costing Kristersson the victory even if SD performs strongly. Among the electorate, 483,182 are first‑time voters and about 227,000 are Swedes living abroad.

Photo: press material from the event