WMO warns El Niño could become one of the strongest on record

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach record highs between October and December 2026, signalling a rapid intensification of El Niño.

In its monthly bulletin the WMO says the event is strengthening quickly and is expected to peak in December. The assessment combines forecasts from 13 national and international centres and uses observations from ocean buoys, satellites and real-time meteorological measurements.

WMO Secretary-General Celest Saulo said: "El Niño is in full swing and is strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts show it is very likely to last until February 2027, which means it could become one of the strongest observed since 1950."

How strong and what it could mean

A key metric, the Niño 3.4 index that tracks temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is forecast to show an anomaly of about +3.7°C for the October–December period, with a peak in December. That figure would top the previous record anomaly of +2.6°C recorded from November 2015 to January 2016.

The WMO cautions that a powerful El Niño tends to raise global-average temperatures by releasing heat stored beneath the ocean surface: the agency notes that the ocean giving up that energy is the warmest on record. The pattern can also reshuffle precipitation, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in different regions.

Models and experts expect wetter-than-average conditions in parts of Africa, eastern Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula and some areas of South America, while drier conditions are possible across the western Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, parts of Central America and India. Scientists emphasise that impacts will not be uniform and that the strengthened El Niño could act as an additional driver of extreme weather worldwide.

Photo: press material from the event