Study: Germany to lose 1.7 million people by 2045, workforce to shrink 4.7%

A new projection by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, produced with the Wüstenrot Foundation, forecasts that Germany’s population will decline to about 81.8 million by 2045 — some 1.7 million fewer people than at the end of 2025 — while the number of employed persons is expected to fall by 4.7 percent.

The report attributes the decline not only to lower birth rates but mainly to the ageing of the population: the large post‑war "baby‑boomer" cohorts are retiring and are followed by much smaller generations. At the study presentation in Berlin, Katerina Hinz, president of the institute, summed up the core problem: "The baby‑boomer generation is retiring; it is followed by significantly smaller generations, the birth rate is falling, and immigration does not compensate for the gap between deaths and births."

Regional winners and losers

The researchers analysed all 400 German districts and independent cities using an index built from 26 indicators covering demographics, the economy, education and social conditions. "The familiar differences between East and West, North and South, as well as between urban and rural areas, are only half the story," Hinz said, arguing that a region’s economic attractiveness will increasingly determine demographic prospects.

Large cities are expected to continue to grow: Berlin is projected to lead the way with nearly a 10 percent increase in residents. Other growth centres include Hamburg, Frankfurt am Main, Munich, Düsseldorf, Dresden and Potsdam. Younger single people tend to concentrate in big metropolises, while families with children more often move to surrounding commuter and suburban areas. By contrast, cities such as Bremen, Duisburg, Dortmund and Kaiserslautern rank among the declining western urban centres, and many sparsely populated districts in the east sit at the bottom of the ranking.

The report highlights an acute labour‑market challenge. Twelve of the 20 districts and cities with the weakest overall scores are now in eastern Germany, up from five in the institute’s 2019 assessment. In some of those areas the working‑age population could shrink by as much as 18 percent by 2045, intensifying what the authors call the "fight for workers." At the same time Bavaria and Baden‑Württemberg stand out as best positioned — their prosperous economies and functioning labour markets make it easier to employ women, older people and foreign nationals.

Researchers say policy must adapt to local realities. Manuel Zlupina of the Wüstenrot Foundation urged tailored regional measures: "What is a good measure for a growing big city is not necessarily appropriate for a shrinking rural district," he said. He added a call for more flexibility and resources: "We need fewer rigid rules, more room for manoeuvre and financial resources, especially for municipalities and for people who work actively on the ground."

Photo: press material from the event