Arsenal favourite for Champions League title as Opta gives them 20.4% chance

The Champions League returns tonight, and betting models already have a clear favorite: Arsenal. According to Opta's pre-tournament probabilities, the Gunners lead the list with a 20.4% chance to lift the trophy scheduled for 5 June 2027 in Madrid.

How the numbers stack up

Bayern Munich sit narrowly behind Arsenal with a 20% probability, while last season's finalist Manchester City are placed third at 12.7%. Paris Saint-Germain, who will try to win the competition for a third consecutive year, are estimated at 7.3%, leaving them fourth in Opta's rankings.

Five English teams appear among the top ten for overall chances, and each is given better than a 50% likelihood to reach the round of 16. Opta's analysis also ranks Liverpool as having the easiest group draw among the participants.

Separately, Stuttgart are described as having the easiest overall schedule of all entrants, and Inter Milan have the most favorable draw among the teams in Pot 1. Arsenal are seen as having a relatively friendly path as well, despite being drawn against two heavyweight opponents.

Arteta's side picked up both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich from Pot 1, yet they will also face two of the competition's lowest-ranked teams — Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. Manchester City, by contrast, are assessed as the English club with the toughest group: they were paired with Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain from Pot 1, while 24th‑placed Napoli represents a difficult opponent from Pot 3.

Opta notes last season's contrasts: Arsenal topped their group after one of the competition's easiest sets of fixtures, while Bayern finished second despite facing the most difficult set of opponents among the 36 teams.

Photo: press material from the event