ECMWF warns of warm, wetter autumn 2026; Slavcho Poposki signals flood risk
Seasonal outlook shows Europe — including North Macedonia — likely to see temperatures about 2–3°C above average and above-average rainfall, increasing the chance of severe weather and local floods.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal outlook points to a notably warmer and wetter autumn 2026 across much of Europe, raising the likelihood of severe weather and flood events, meteorologist Slavcho Poposki warned on 26 October 2026.
According to the forecast, temperatures over large parts of the continent are expected to run about 2–3 °C above the multi-year average, while precipitation is projected to be significantly above normal in many areas. That combination increases the risk of intense storms and local flooding this autumn.
Poposki outlined what the outlook means for the Balkans and North Macedonia:
“Also the Balkans, including Macedonia, expects a warm autumn with temperatures above average for the autumn months (that is, temperatures will be about 2 degrees higher than the multi-year average). Rainfall across the Balkans, including Macedonia, will also be above average, that is I expect more precipitation during the autumn in our part of Europe, and there is a greater likelihood of the occurrence of severe weather and local floods.
El Niño the driving factor
“This situation is precisely due to the strong influence of the climatological warm phenomenon (EL NIÑO) which, as I said, strongly influences the weather over the European continent. The strong influence of EL NIÑO will continue during the autumn months.
“I must note that because these are seasonal weather outlooks for autumn 2026, changes and deviations in the forecast are possible. Exactly therefore, citizens should regularly follow my shorter-term meteorological analyses which have a high probability of being realized, namely they are more than 90% likely to occur,” he said.
For North Macedonia the forecast means a heightened need for vigilance: above-average rainfall increases the chance of localized flash floods, saturated soils and more frequent storm events. Local authorities, emergency services and citizens are advised to monitor updated short-range forecasts and to prepare for episodes of heavy rain.
Photo: press material from the event
