El Niño could cut global output by about €395 billion by 2027
Allianz says 144 countries would feel the impact, with China, the US and India taking nearly 60%; EU risk about €21bn.
El Niño could cut global economic output in 144 countries by roughly €395 billion by 2027, according to a new report by Allianz. The insurer warns that additional losses from droughts, floods, fires and hurricanes would further raise the economic toll.
Who would bear the brunt?
The report finds that China, the United States and India would suffer the largest shares of the hit: together they account for almost 60 percent of the total estimated economic shock.
European Union economies would not be spared. Allianz estimates a potential hit to EU output of about €21 billion, equivalent to 0.09% of GDP, and expects El Niño could raise overall inflation in the EU by 0.31 percentage points while food prices could climb by around 0.5 percentage points.
The document also says climate-related risks are already visible in macroeconomic data. Extreme weather in 2025 produced global economic losses of roughly €184 billion — some 32% lower than in 2024 but still about 20% above the 2000–2019 average.
Lost production in Europe during 2026 linked to heatwaves is estimated at €113 billion.
Allianz concludes that the experience of 2025 and 2026 shows countries with developed prevention systems, pre-arranged financing and clear response mechanisms limited economic disruption more effectively. Investing in adaptation, resilient infrastructure and early-warning systems could be cheaper than paying for damage afterwards, Allianz says on its website.
Photo: press material from the event
