Finland's president says Russia unlikely to risk attacking a NATO member
Alexander Stubb said he sees no evidence Moscow would attack NATO and rejected the idea of testing the alliance; he also cited Russian losses in Ukraine.
Finland's president said he does not believe Russia would risk attacking a NATO member and warned against any attempt to test the alliance's resolve. The comments were made in a recent interview published on 29 August 2026.
Alexander Stubb argued that there are no clear signs Moscow is preparing to strike a NATO country and underlined that the balance of conventional, missile and nuclear forces makes a direct attack highly unlikely.
Key points from Stubb's assessment
Stubb told the interviewer: "I don't know if anyone has a crystal ball, but I simply do not see either evidence or facts that would support that." He added that he could not see Russia "would ever want to attack the most powerful military alliance in the world."
The Finnish president also said there is no strategic logic in probing NATO's determination: "There is no point for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance."
Turning to the war in Ukraine, Stubb cited heavy Russian losses and the strain on Moscow's manpower, saying that Russia loses between 30 000 and 35 000 soldiers each month while sending around 27 000 replacements to the front. "So they have fewer and fewer soldiers in a very complicated situation. I simply cannot imagine that they could mobilize forces on two fronts," he said.
Stubb warned that continued European support for Kyiv remains crucial. "And you in Germany and we in Finland must understand that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we have against Russia. If Ukraine loses, we will lose too," he said, urging sustained assistance for Ukraine's defence.
Photo: EPA/KIMMO BRANDT
