Isaias halts Gulf output, pushing European gas prices up

European wholesale gas prices rose again on Thursday after operators suspended oil and gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Isaias. The Dutch TTF price for delivery in November traded at €79.75 per megawatt-hour in the morning, about two percent higher than the previous session's close.

U.S. forecasters say Isaias' projected track crosses areas with significant offshore oil and gas facilities as well as numerous refinery complexes on the Gulf Coast. U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management data show that, as of Wednesday, roughly one quarter of oil output in the Gulf of Mexico and about one-sixth of gas output had been halted.

Immediate market and supply effects

The interruption of production and precautionary platform evacuations tightened supply expectations and prompted short-term buying in European trading rooms. Traders pointed to the reduced offshore flows as the main driver behind the move higher in TTF prices for November delivery.

Weather updates accompanying satellite imagery warned of intensifying storm conditions and the risk of dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain ahead of an expected landfall late Friday or early Saturday, the social-media post said.

The disruption in the Gulf comes as the United States remains an important external supplier to the European Union. Last year the U.S. was the EU's second-largest supplier, sending 75.6 billion cubic metres of gas — a little over a quarter of the bloc's imports. Only Norway delivered more to the EU in 2025, at 89.3 billion cubic metres, equivalent to 30.9 percent of total foreign gas deliveries.

Analysts said the market reaction will depend on how long platforms remain shut and how quickly offshore operations can restart once the storm passes. Any prolonged outage that constrains transatlantic flows risks keeping European prices elevated until supply buffers are rebuilt.

Photo: press material from the event