IMF raises North Macedonia growth forecast to 3.5% for 2026
IMF’s October report upgraded the 2026 projection from 3.1% to 3.5% and expects 3.2% growth in 2027
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecast for North Macedonia to 3.5% for 2026 in its latest October report on global economic developments, published ahead of the IMF and World Bank autumn meetings in Bangkok.
The Fund upgraded the 2026 projection from an earlier estimate of 3.1%. For 2027 the IMF now expects growth of 3.2%.
Regional comparisons and other multilateral forecasts
In the same set of projections the IMF sees neighbouring economies growing at varied rates: Albania and Kosovo 3.5%, Serbia 3.2%, Montenegro 3.0%, Bulgaria 2.6%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.3%, Croatia 2.2% and Greece 1.8%.
The World Bank recently also revised its forecast for North Macedonia’s 2026 growth upward, from 2.9% to 3.2%, citing infrastructure projects as a key driver and projecting steady growth of 3.0% for 2027 and 2028.
Globally, the IMF slightly raised its projection for world growth in 2026 to 3.1%, down from 3.5% in 2025. The Fund expects the US economy to sustain growth of 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027.
The report flags a near 41% rise in average oil prices this year — to about $96 per barrel — which the IMF warns will push global inflation to 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% last year.
On technology, the Fund notes that the rise of artificial intelligence helps to offset some negative effects of higher energy costs, though gains are unevenly distributed. The Fund's assessment is that the impact of AI on the labour market will spread like a "slow tsunami".
These projections rest on key assumptions: oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to normalise by March, and AI‑related demand is assumed to moderate.
Photo: press material from the event
