Vlado Spiridonov announces 30‑day orientation forecast for North Macedonia

Meteorologist Vlado Spiridonov has published a new method for producing an orientation 30‑day weather outlook for North Macedonia; the product will be updated every 15 days. The announcement was published on 16 September 2026 at 06:00.

How the forecast is produced

Spiridonov explained that the forecast combines two ECMWF products: for the first 15 days it uses the operational ECMWF IFS with analyses of temperature and precipitation. For the period after day 15 it relies on the ECMWF seasonal ensemble, using 51 possible atmospheric scenarios to identify broader temperature and precipitation trends. Temperatures are additionally compared with climatological averages for Skopje.

In his analysis, Spiridonov highlighted an expected gradual cooling toward 25 September with an increased potential for precipitation. "The current 30‑day analysis shows a gradual cooling toward 25 September, when there is also an increased potential for precipitation. Around that period the average daily temperature may fall toward 12°C, with minimum temperatures below 10°C. After the cooling a gradual stabilization is expected toward the end of September," he said.

Looking into October, the forecast points to a developing autumn trend in early and mid‑October, with both daytime maxima and nightly minima falling. Maximum temperatures are expected to fall from about 21°C at the start of October to 17–18°C around mid‑month, while mean daily temperatures are expected near 12–13°C. Several potential precipitation episodes are noted for the first half of October. In the graphical product only days with an ensemble‑mean daily amount above 2.0 mm/day are shown to avoid displaying minimal and less certain signals.

Spiridonov emphasized that this 30‑day outlook is informative and scientific and does not constitute an official weather forecast. Up to 15 days the analysis follows the more specific ECMWF IFS signal; beyond 15 days ensemble scenarios and broader trends are examined. "The longer the forecast period, the greater the uncertainty. Therefore the forecast should be used as a guide to possible weather development, not as a precise forecast for a specific day," he added.

The product is intended for a wide range of users — citizens, the private sector, agriculture, tourism, transport, construction and anyone in need of timely information on weather trends.

Photo: press material from the event