Allianz: El Niño could reduce global output by about €395 billion by 2027
Allianz projects a ~€395 billion hit across 144 countries by 2027, with China, the US and India bearing nearly 60% and EU output down €21 billion.
A strong El Niño event could cut global economic output across 144 countries by about €395 billion by 2027, according to a new assessment by the insurer Allianz.
The projected losses would be concentrated: China, the United States and India together account for nearly 60 percent of the estimated global hit. The report warns that additional damage from droughts, floods, wildfires and hurricanes could push the total higher.
Regional impacts and inflation
In the European Union the potential hit to economic output is roughly €21 billion, equal to about 0.09 percent of GDP. Allianz estimates El Niño could add 0.31 percentage points to overall inflation in the EU, while food prices might rise by about 0.5 percentage points.
The analysis also highlights that climate risks are already visible in macroeconomic data. Allianz notes that extreme weather in 2025 produced global economic losses of around €184 billion — 32 percent less than in 2024, but still 20 percent above the 2000–2019 average.
Lost industrial and service output in Europe during 2026, driven by heat waves, is estimated at €113 billion. Allianz says countries with established prevention systems, pre-arranged financing and clear response mechanisms limited economic disruption more effectively in 2025 and 2026.
Investing in adaptation, climate‑resilient infrastructure and early‑warning systems, Allianz adds on its website, could be cheaper than paying for damages after the fact.
Photo: press material from the event
