Coffee prices surge on global markets as futures jump 18.5%

Global coffee prices spiked sharply this week as futures posted a steep one-day rise, driven by worries that climate change and a possible return of El Niño could dent harvests in the world’s main growing areas.

On Monday futures surged 18.5 percent, climbing to $3.57 per pound — the largest single‑day jump for the commodity since 2000. Traders said the move reflected close attention to weather in Brazil and other key producing countries, and concern that adverse conditions could reduce yields and tighten already limited stocks.

Market drivers and inventory pressures

Analysts pointed to particularly low inventories of high‑quality arabica as a factor amplifying the price reaction. Institutional investors and commodity funds that use automated trading strategies also increased buying interest, adding upward pressure on the market.

Brazil remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of arabica, while Vietnam dominates robusta output — and any production disruption in those countries can quickly ripple through global prices when supplies are constrained. Analysts, however, say there are currently no clear signs that extreme weather has yet destroyed Brazil’s harvest.

Price pressures are not limited to coffee. Cocoa has risen as well amid investor fears about climate risks in West Africa, where Ivory Coast and Ghana account for a large share of global cocoa production. Market participants warn that sustained high commodity prices could translate into higher costs for processors, importers and ultimately consumers and cafés.

In the United States, arabica prices have risen by 70 percent, highlighting how recent market volatility has already affected regional price benchmarks.

Photo: press material from the event