Political change in Serbia and possible effects on North Macedonia

The political change in Serbia has prompted questions about what ripple effects might reach North Macedonia. The topic was examined during a discussion on 24 Analiza featuring Naser Selmani, Goran Ilievski and Goran Trpenovski, who outlined several channels through which developments in Belgrade could matter for Skopje.

Key channels of influence

Panelists identified diplomacy and bilateral relations as the first and most direct channel: shifts in government in Belgrade can alter tone and priority in talks with North Macedonia, affecting cooperation on cross-border projects, infrastructure and regional initiatives. Economic ties — investment, trade and energy supplies — were highlighted as a second vector that can create practical consequences even without formal policy changes.

Another theme was the domestic political dimension: changes in Serbia’s leadership may affect the positions of political parties and public narratives that reach Serbian communities in North Macedonia, with potential implications for interethnic relations and local politics.

Security and regional stability were named as further areas to watch. Even limited shifts in strategic posture, law enforcement cooperation or military signalling in Belgrade could force adjustments in Skopje’s risk assessments and practical cooperation on cross-border crime and migration.

Speakers on 24 Analiza stressed that effects are rarely binary — they are a mix of short-term practical shifts and longer-term political signaling. They warned against assuming dramatic, immediate outcomes, while noting that incremental changes across several domains can cumulatively become significant.

Ultimately, the debate concluded that North Macedonia should monitor developments in Serbia closely, preserve open diplomatic channels, and prepare contingency measures in economic and security areas to reduce exposure to possible negative spillovers.

Photo: press material from the event