NATO prepares drone- and AI-centred plan to defend eastern flank

NATO's top military commander in Europe is preparing a new contingency plan to repel a possible Russian attack on the alliance's eastern flank that relies heavily on drones, sensors and artificial intelligence, the document shows.

What the plan would do

The paper, titled "Theory of Victory," is scheduled to be presented on October 12 in Poland by General Alexus Grinkevich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe. An unclassified version of the document has been circulated for review.

Its stated aim is to set out clearly how NATO would stop and defeat Russian forces before they can secure substantial territorial gains along the eastern edge of the alliance. The concept builds on the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative (EFDI), a program to strengthen defenses from northern Europe, across the Baltic and Poland, to the continent's southeast.

Central to the plan is a single, integrated network of reconnaissance drones, radars, satellites, cameras and other sensors. Collected data would be processed with artificial intelligence so commanders can detect enemy forces earlier and make faster decisions about how to respond.

Under the envisioned model the first line of defense in the event of a large attack would be largely composed of unmanned systems — aerial drones, ground robots and other autonomous assets — with conventional forces such as tanks, combat aircraft and soldiers committed more extensively afterward.

The documents use the term "Kill Web" to describe a concept in which many different sensors and weapons are not linked in one slow, linear chain but are instead networked so that targeting information can quickly reach the weapon system best placed to strike. For example, a drone could detect a Russian vehicle, feed the data into the shared network, and AI could fuse that input with radar and satellite feeds so a commander can pick the most appropriate strike option.

NATO does not plan to give artificial intelligence the authority to make autonomous lethal decisions. AI would primarily process large data volumes, monitor the situation and offer options; humans would retain final decisions on the use of lethal force.

Much of the shift reflects lessons from the war in Ukraine, where inexpensive drones, electronic warfare and rapid links between reconnaissance and artillery have changed battlefield dynamics. Another central problem for the alliance is cost: shooting down a drone worth a few thousand euros with an air-defense missile costing hundreds of thousands is not sustainable. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned the alliance must develop cheaper interceptors and new ways to defend against massed drone attacks.

The work on beefing up defenses along the eastern flank has accelerated in recent months because of frequent drone incidents and heightened Russian activity near NATO member borders. General Grinkevich has said formal campaign plans still require political approval from the North Atlantic Council, but military planners are already exploring how the alliance might respond to future threats. The new document does not mean NATO expects an imminent Russian attack; it lays out scenarios for the contingency that deterrence fails and a member state's territory is attacked.

Photo: press material from the event