UN projects North Macedonia could fall below one million inhabitants by 2100

United Nations projections show that, if current trends continue, North Macedonia could lose more than half of its people by the end of the century: a reduction of about 52% that would leave the country with fewer than one million inhabitants by 2100, according to data published on 13 November 2026.

Under the UN World Population Prospects (UN WPP / UNDESA) medium scenario, the population of North Macedonia would fall to roughly 1.52 million by 2050 and to a range of about 868,000–943,000 by 2100. National forecasts from the State Statistical Office (DZS) are less severe but still point to a steep decline: a drop of some 30%–35% by 2070, from an initial 1.83 million down to about 1.2–1.3 million.

Why the numbers are heading down

Demographers attribute the projected shrinkage to a combination of low fertility, population ageing and sustained emigration of young families. The country currently shows a relatively high share of working-age people (age 20–64) — 59.5% versus the EU average of 58.3% — but long-term trajectories point toward fast depopulation.

Fertility has fallen over the past decade: the total fertility rate declined from 1.52 children per woman in 2014 to 1.44 in 2024 (below the European average of 1.34). Annual births have dropped from 44,095 in 1960, to 29,308 in 2000, and to a record low of 16,061 live births in 2024. In some municipalities — Mavrovo and Rostuše, Centar Župa and Plasnica — more children are registered as born abroad each year than inside the country.

The effects are already visible: fewer first-grade classes and the potential closure of some schools, a workforce reduced by more than 171,000 people, and increasing pressure on economic growth and the pension system.

These trends mirror wider patterns across southeastern and eastern Europe. Eurostat projections (EUROPOP2025) foresee the EU population peaking in 2029 at about 453.3 million, falling to 445 million by 2050 and to 398.8 million by 2100 — an overall decline of 11.7%. Countries such as Ukraine (projected to lose around 62%), Albania (57%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (56%) face even sharper falls. By contrast, Germany maintains a relatively stable headcount — about 83.5 million — largely thanks to sustained immigration, including workers from the Western Balkans; Eurostat notes 22 German regions rank at the top of the EU for shares of working-age population (over 63%).

Photo: press material from the event