Budget deficit of 46 billion denars already spent with three months to year‑end

With more than three months left in the year, North Macedonia's planned budget deficit has already been used up. The Ministry of Finance's fiscal counter shows that, as of 18 September, the state had collected just over 250 billion denars but spent 296 billion denars — creating a budget shortfall of more than 46 billion denars.

Key figures and fiscal space

According to the budget rebalance adopted two months ago, the deficit was projected at 46.26 billion denars, or 4.1% of GDP. That projection leaves only 248 million denars — roughly 4 million euros — of remaining room under the planned ceiling. So far, "748 million euros more have been spent than were collected in the state coffers."

Economists say it will be difficult to stay within the plan. The government would need to ensure that, for the rest of the year, spending does not exceed revenues. That implies cuts to capital investment and other belt‑tightening measures — but experts expect new borrowing and a wider deficit will be necessary, with public debt likely breaching the 60% of GDP threshold, according to Professor Marjan Petreski.

Professor Marjan Petreski commented: "The intensified execution of capital investments — I mean the payment the state made for a large infrastructure project, the highway being built by Bechtel and Enka. In such circumstances, that explains why the projected budget deficit has been entirely exhausted and points to the fact that a budget rebalance becomes inevitable at this moment, or in the upcoming period, in order to fully meet the planned budgetary needs until the end of the year, especially considering that budget execution, particularly in the part of capital expenditures, intensifies in November and December, that is, at the end of the year," he said.

The Ministry of Finance insists implementation is proceeding according to plan and that it remains committed to medium‑term fiscal consolidation. "In terms of the realization of the budget deficit we point out that the most relevant data for the level of realization are the data from the Budget execution on the last day of the month, because during the month there is an established dynamics of inflows of tax revenues and an established dynamics of realization of obligations. At that, we point to the data from 31 August when the budget deficit amounted to 38,280 million denars or 82.74% of the projection for 2026," the ministry said.

The July rebalance increased capital investment allocations by 94 million euros and deepened the budget gap by 110 million euros — a gap that, the ministry's execution data show, has already been met by the end of September. After the payment of costs related to Bechtel and Enka, the first three months of the year recorded a 400 million euro deficit, while spending slowed in the following six months. The ministry's figures indicate that with three months to go, 24 of the planned 46 billion denars for capital investments have already been spent. Finance Minister said in recent days that measures to lower fuel prices have reduced excise revenues, and authorities are analysing whether a fresh rebalance is needed or whether funds can be reallocated.

Policymakers now face a choice between cutting planned investments, reallocating funds and taking on new debt — decisions that will shape the public finances heading into the next year.

Photo: press material from the event