John Sawers: Ceasefire in Ukraine not expected before next spring
Former MI6 chief warns of a prolonged low‑intensity conflict and says serious talks may not come until the end of 2027.
John Sawers, the former head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service MI6, said a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine is unlikely to appear before next spring and that a lasting peace between Moscow and Kyiv is effectively impossible while Vladimir Putin remains in power.
Sawers, who led MI6 from 2009 to 2014, told attendees at an annual public forum that both sides were already exhausted after years of combat. He described the short-term prospects as bleak and warned of difficult months ahead.
Most likely outcome: a frozen front
According to Sawers, the most optimistic scenario for the coming years is that the fighting will recede to a low-intensity conflict with a largely frozen front line, a situation comparable to the period after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and before the full-scale invasion in 2022.
He also predicted "a 'high-pressure winter' for the region," expressing doubt that the diplomatic missions sent by former US President Donald Trump—led by Steve Vitkof and Jared Kushner—will produce a rapid ceasefire.
Even as he sounded a pessimistic note, Sawers said important developments are taking place behind the scenes in both countries: growing domestic unease in Russia and increasing political pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, including challenges stemming from a reconstruction of the Defence Ministry and corruption inquiries affecting his inner circle.
Sawers added that there is a realistic chance for serious negotiations and a halt to the fighting only toward the end of 2027, and then only if military losses become critically heavy for both sides and the current Russian ground advances are stopped.
Photo: press material from the event
